Start with behavior
Define hypotheses around behavior: who will do what, under what condition, and by how much.
INTERMEDIATE · 8 min read
How to Design a Strong Painted Door Hypothesis
Step-by-step hypothesis design for high-quality Painted Door Test outcomes.
painted door hypothesisdesign painted door test
Set falsifiable thresholds
Use clear cutoffs for conversion, acquisition cost, and downstream intent events. Ambiguous thresholds produce ambiguous decisions.
Pre-commit decision actions
Before launch, map outcomes to actions: build now, refine and retest, or stop.
Frequently asked questions
What is the biggest hypothesis mistake?
Using vague outcomes like good traction instead of numeric outcomes.
Should I test multiple hypotheses at once?
Only if you can isolate variables and maintain clean interpretation.